The sales price of LED bulbs in Japan in 2009 was less than 4,000 yen, which is about half of the original, so demand has increased rapidly. In 2009, sales of LED bulbs in Japan were approximately 1.7 million, and it is expected to exceed 4 million in 2010.
LED bulbs began to flow in the market before 2009, but the price difference between incandescent lamps and bulb-type fluorescent lamps is large, and there are problems in brightness. However, as LED packages continue to advance toward high-light quantization in recent years, problems in brightness are gradually being solved. In addition, by improving peripheral components and reducing the price of LED packages, product development is becoming increasingly active.
The cost analysis results of LED bulbs in 2009 are shown in Figure 1. LED bulb components and materials cost about 50% of the total. Among these component costs, LED packages account for about half of them. In addition, the proportion of the mounting base plate, the circuit board, and the heat sink is also high. It can be argued that the trend of these component costs in the future will have a great impact on the sales price trend of LED bulbs.
Figure 1: Cost analysis of LED bulbs Techno Systems Research (TSR) data. On April 27th, "The 7th TSR Symposium LED Business 2010", the company's professional analysts will detail the latest trends in the new generation of lighting represented by LED bulbs.
Among them, the development of LED packaging, which accounts for about half of the cost of parts, is the decisive factor for the popularity of LED bulbs. In recent years, improvements in LED packaging have expanded the range of LED bulbs and reduced sales prices, but there are still problems to be solved in terms of cost and performance. In terms of performance, most of the LED bulbs currently on the market are products with brightness equivalent to 40-60W incandescent lamps. In order to further increase the brightness, it is necessary to increase the number of LED packages used, or to use a high-power LED package. Therefore, there is a need for improvements in heat dissipation.
However, changing the performance of LED packages and improving heat dissipation may result in increased cost of LED packages, heat sinks, mounting backplanes, and circuit boards. Therefore, the development of a material that can simultaneously take care of both low cost and high heat dissipation is a priority problem to be solved at present.
At present, most manufacturers engaged in the LED bulb business actually respond to the rapid decline in market prices by controlling development costs and installation costs. In addition, many manufacturers believe that the low price of materials can't keep up with the decline in the price of LED bulbs. The current LED bulbs are in the testing stage from the package to the heat dissipation structure. It is expected that the market price will continue to decline after 2010, so the cost of parts will be reduced in the medium and long term.
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