In 2013, the manufacturing industry in the first three quarters of China's electronics industry grew by 11.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate in 2012 was 14.8%. We expect that even in the fourth quarter, stimulated by factors such as Christmas New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the growth rate will reach 12% in 2013, but this will still be the lowest growth rate since 2010.
In terms of industry, it is expected that in 2013, mobile communication mobile phones, tablets and automobiles will continue to maintain rapid growth, and white goods will maintain moderate growth. However, sales in the fields of digital cameras and servers have dropped significantly.
We believe that the growth of China's electronics manufacturing industry will maintain a moderate growth of 13% in 2014, which is a good news.
Judging from the tone of the Third Plenary Session, the government's understanding of the macro economy is in place. Most of the policies introduced are mainly to promote economic development, although the initial policy tone is to protect the country's security. This will make people worry that the economy will be affected.
In our analysis and forecast below, we will list the views of the nine hot markets for your reference.
First, the phone. In 2013, the sales volume of mobile phones will exceed 300 million. It is estimated that the domestic sales volume will reach 387 million in 2014. LTE and 4G will drive a new round of purchase demand for mobile phones. Of the top ten brands in 2013, eight are domestic brands. Can the first record be broken?
Second, the tablet. Domestic flat-panel sales in 2013 are expected to reach 14 million units, up 30.8% year-on-year. In 2014, it could exceed 18.2 million units with a growth rate of 30%. The multi-core competition situation of tablet PCs will slow down, which will tend to system optimization and application development. GPU/peripheral applications/sensing technology/human-computer interaction will be the competitive direction.
Third, automotive electronics. It is estimated that the market size of China's automotive electronics will reach 51.4 billion US dollars in 2013, with an annual growth rate of 19.9%. The degree of electronicization of domestically produced vehicles will continue to increase, and high-end products such as active safety will accelerate the popularization. Automotive electronics suppliers with comparative advantages in terms of cost will usher in more market opportunities.
Fourth, medical electronics. It is expected that the size of the medical electronics market will maintain a growth rate of 15.5% in 2013, which will exceed 10 billion US dollars, and will reach nearly 12.5 billion US dollars in 2014. Hotspots include portable healthcare products, medical monitoring products, mobile healthcare, remote diagnostics and therapy, and Bluetooth 4.0 technology applications.
Fifth, security electronics. It is expected to grow by 22.5% in 2013 to reach US$30.63 billion. It will also grow at a high rate in 2014, exceeding $35 billion. Technology development has quickly entered the era of intelligent HD. The trend of high-definition and intelligent joint research and development has become the development consensus of the security industry. On the basis of high-definition, intelligent technology is implanted to monitor, judge, analyze, and alarm, and the difficulty of manual monitoring is reduced. Application hotspots include face recognition products, WiFi wireless transmission modules, and the like.
Sixth, industrial control electronics. It is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2013, reaching more than 30 billion US dollars, with a growth rate of 14.2%. In 2014, it will maintain an annual growth rate of 15%, with a market size of US$34.76 billion. Industrial control Traditional equipment has turned to embedded applications, and the electronic equipment is getting higher and higher. Robotics, machine vision, and multi-axis force/torque sensors are hotspots for applications.
Seven, LED industry. In 2012, the LED market in mainland China reached 8.845 billion US dollars, of which the import value was 5.051 billion US dollars, accounting for 57.1% of the market demand. It is expected that the market size will grow at a rate of around 11.6% this year, exceeding $10 billion. Among the application hotspots, the general industrial lighting, LED industrial lighting penetration rate is expected to speed up; followed by landscape lighting, backlight applications, display applications. The LED industry will reach $11.7 billion in 2014.
Eight, smart wearable devices. Smart wearables is an emerging industry that is expected to reach 2.03 billion yuan in 2013 and more than 10 billion yuan in 2015. The growth rate in these three years has doubled. Applications include smart glasses, smart watches, smart wristbands, smart running shoes, smart rings, smart armbands and more. At the same time, wearable devices will bring massive amounts of real-time big data to cloud computing, providing unprecedented opportunities for high-tech startups.
Nine, the Internet of Things. Some companies have linked the Internet of Things to smart cities, and they have also combined the cloud industry. It is expected that the market size will grow at a rate of about 39.4% this year, reaching $80.51 billion. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Chinese Internet of Things market will exceed RMB 500 billion by 2015. In the next three years, China's Internet of Things industry will be the first to spread in the fields of smart grid, smart home, digital city, smart medical, and vehicle sensors.
As for who is the next tenth, as long as your industry can continue to make money, and do not intend to switch to other industries, who cares.
Note: The article writing data is based on the data forecast of the first three quarters released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Customs in 2013.
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