LED industry: overheated or just beginning
Now LED investment is indeed overheated, and LED industry shuffling is inevitable.
In July 2010, Hangzhou Bay LED Industrial Park, the largest LED industrial park in Zhejiang Province, will be put into production. The Hangzhou Bay LED Industrial Park, located in Haiyan, Zhejiang, covers an area of ​​1,000 mu. It is estimated that the total investment scale will exceed 3 billion yuan, and it is working hard to build China's eighth largest semiconductor lighting industry base. In recent years, the LED industry has rapidly gained heat in China. According to public information, in the first half of 2009 alone, the total investment budget for LED projects in various parts of the country has exceeded 20 billion yuan.
Is the investment in the LED industry overheated? Will it be as overcapacity as polysilicon investment in previous years? The reporter of Zheshang interviewed the consultant of China Lighting Society, the honorary chairman of Zhejiang Lighting Society, and the professor of Zhejiang University Optoelectronic Information Engineering, Professor Ye Guanrong.
"Zheshang": Professor Ye, in your opinion, is the current investment in the LED industry overheated or just beginning?
Ye Guanrong: This question is hard to say. I think that the overheating and the beginning of the argument have some truth.
The efficacy of a 10 watt incandescent lamp is 10-12 lumens per watt, while the luminous efficacy of an LED is 100 lumens per watt, which is 8-10 times that of an incandescent lamp. It is now possible to buy chips of 120-130 lumens/watt, while OSRAM has announced that it can achieve 160 lumens/watt in the laboratory, and Cree of the United States has announced that the laboratory has reached 208 lumens/watt. Moreover, LEDs have a long life span of more than 50,000 hours, while incandescent lamps have a lifetime of only 1,000 hours. To build a low-carbon economy, LEDs must be used. Light sources and lighting companies will soon be eliminated if they do not participate in LEDs.
From the development direction of the LED industry, the current is just the beginning, just the beginning of the beginning. However, now LED investment is indeed overheated, investment is too aggressive, caught in a vicious circle of low prices and inferior quality, and created a lot of garbage products. LED industry shuffling is inevitable!
"Zheshang": Since the Chinese LED industry has just started, there is still a lot of investment space! Not long ago, a Zheshang businessman engaged in the photovoltaic industry told me that he is preparing to invest in an LED company.
Ye Guanrong: Investing in LED depends on which part of the investment LED industry, and the investment opportunities in each link are not the same.
"Zheshang": We say that the more upstream the Chinese LED industry is, the weaker it is. Is the opportunity here big?
Ye Guanrong: The patents in the upstream of the LED industry are basically in the United States, Germany and Japan. They are mainly monopolized by the five major companies, Japan Nichia, Toyota Synthetic, Cree, Lumileds and Osram. The five major companies avoid patent disputes through interactive authorization. Other companies avoid patent disputes by obtaining unilateral authorization from these companies. The five major companies have their own advantages, but they all focus on the high-end market in their respective fields.
If you want to invest in LED upstream industries such as epitaxial wafers and chips, you must first have a lot of money, at least several billion yuan of investment. Importing a key equipment for the production of LED epitaxial wafers, MOCVD, requires as much as 10-20 million yuan, and 10 equipments need one or two hundred million yuan. In addition, companies must evade the patents of these monopolies and require a large number of professionals.
Therefore, the risk of investing in LED upstream is very high. Only companies with considerable human, material and financial resources can enter the upstream.
"Zheshang": Since there are many high-voltage lines upstream of the LED industry chain, what is the prospect of the packaging industry in the midstream?
Ye Guanrong: The threshold of the packaging industry in the middle reaches is relatively low, and investment of one or two hundred million yuan can be done well. China's LED packaging industry has developed very well, and Zhejiang has many packaging companies. Although the entry threshold for packaging companies is not very high, the quality is very different. At present, packaging equipment is basically imported, and excellent talents are also crucial in this link.
Although the outlook for the LED industry is absolutely good, everyone should not blindly invest. It is also difficult for a stranger to enter the LED industry. The LED industry can solve all problems without money.
China's LED packaging industry is very large, and there are packaging factories in every place. As a result of the competition of these enterprises, a merger and acquisition war will be triggered, leaving a relatively good enterprise, and the competition result of the energy-saving lamp factory is like this. I think that the new investment in LED packaging projects is not very interesting. It is more difficult to set up a new factory to follow up. It is better to take shortcuts to acquire basic companies and attract talents to expand production capacity.
In addition, LED packaging projects have a long payback period. Maybe your technology keeps up, but people are eliminated. The LED industry has developed too fast: five or six years ago, we thought that LEDs could not work. Three years ago, we thought that LEDs could enter the field of landscape lighting. Now it seems that LEDs can not only enter the field of lighting, but also develop into the field of indoor lighting. The problem now is that LED prices are too high. Buy a 100 lumens / watt chip is 5-7 yuan, but also packaged into lamps, the price is not enough, the 120-watt street lamp will be three or four thousand.
"Zheshang": So what is the investment prospect of the LED industry downstream application market?
Ye Guanrong: The downstream of the LED industry is a situation that shows its magical powers. Now LED luminaires can be flexibly designed according to the application conditions, and it is not a traditional style.
The downstream of the LED industry has an investment advantage and the investment threshold is very low. However, many mid-stream LED companies are now developing downstream, and they have more competitive advantages and competitiveness. In the future, the middle and lower reaches of the LED industry will be developed together, and it is easy to develop downstream in the middle reaches.
"Zheshang": Professor Ye, you are an expert in the Chinese lighting industry. It is said that 90% of the lighting measurement in China is your student. So, how do you judge the pattern of the future lighting industry? What will be after the LED?
Ye Guanrong: In the future, LEDs in the lighting industry will remain, and energy-saving lamps with high cost performance will remain for a long time. The electrodeless lamps with long life and LED glare are still developing, and the ceramic gold halide with high luminous efficiency and good display performance is good. The lights will remain for a long time. In the future, OLED (Organic LED) will be a strong competitor for LED. Its luminous efficiency is not as high as that of LEDs, but its cost is low. OLED is an organic material illuminator that can be used flexibly. In the future, the entire ceiling is a light or a TV set, or a column can be used as a light. Recently, some internationally savvy venture capital investments are already looking for OLED companies.
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