Experts Reveal Secrets of EU-China PV

It seems that "putting a horse" is actually a long-term control of the "Gate of Life."

Since mid-July, China’s photovoltaics, which were once tortured, have received good news. First, China ruled that the US-South Korea solar-grade polysilicon was dumped, making it hard for those who had survived the "winter", but also the Chinese crystal silicon manufacturers that were hanging out on the front line were really excited for a while. Afterwards, major industry policies were positive - the "six photovoltaic countries" began to work out. However, the EU officials who had previously suffered a lot of damage to China's photovoltaics turned out to be an empathetic "intimate brother" overnight. This gave China PV a “living road” with a “lower export price of 0.56 euros per watt and annual export volume of 7 GW”.

However, after the euphoria, as China's PV people who have experienced great ups and downs, should be gradually mature to consider some issues? For example, the EU's "intimate brother" left to the "Chinese brothers" is really a "living path" ?

In fact, after many setbacks, China’s photovoltaics have been forced to make “double limit” commitments (limited to low price of 0.56 euros/watt, the total limit of 7 GW/year) only implemented until 2015, “after the expiration of the implementation, the EU also A new round of negotiations will be launched with China on the access of photovoltaic products in China, and this means that since then, the "gate of life" (price, total amount) of China's photovoltaics will be held in the hands of others for a long time." The authoritative informed person, who declined to be named, explained to the “Securities Daily” reporter that “There is a clause that is not known to many people in the “Price Commitment”, that is, the EU’s request to China, and the negotiation in 2015. If you open up a larger market to China (7 GW/year or more), it will be limited to advanced, innovative new-generation photovoltaic cells."

The future of "living" is uncertain
According to the “lower limit” commitment in the “double limit” commitment, photovoltaic products exported to Europe in the future must be sold at 0.56 euros per watt or more. According to data held by reporters, the lowest price for China’s PV products exported to Europe was 0.38 euros in history. According to the calculation, the sales price of China's PV products in Europe will increase by nearly 50% in the future.

We must know that the premise of this increase is that the EU will never allow Chinese companies to "curve the country" as they had before the United States' "double reaction."

There have been informed sources to the "Securities Daily" reporter revealed that "this EU-China agreement, once found that a Chinese company to take any measures to avoid the "double limit", it will immediately impose a 47.6% anti-dumping tariff. In addition, in the EU and I In the text of the party’s price commitment agreement, most of the content was finding and stopping the “curve saving” measures Chinese companies may adopt, for example, the agreement’s investment transfer to Chinese companies (establishing overseas companies and then exporting to Europe), Reported actual power of photovoltaic products, buy one get one free (inverted to reduce the price) and other 'trick', have set strict constraints."

In terms of "cap", the total annual export volume of PV in China must be controlled below 7 GW.

In this regard, he is familiar with the development strategy of the European Union's photovoltaic industry and was formerly the director of the nanodevice research department of the Helmholtz Berlin Materials and Energy Research Center in Germany. He is currently a nationally-recognized expert in the "Thousand People Project" of the Central Organization Department and the Beijing Low-carbon Clean Energy Institute. Dr. Chen Wei, director of the Center, analyzed with the "Securities Daily" reporter that "Without further efforts to drive the policy, according to the EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) yearbook, the estimated installed capacity of new photovoltaics in 2013 is 13.8 GW/year in Europe. For the year - 14.2 GW/year, this figure is expected to reach 15 GW in 2014. This means that in addition to the market share that China has left for China's PV, there is still 7 GW-8 GW of space."

So, who will be the market share of 7 GW-8 GW? “There is no doubt that except China, we can provide countries with matching production capacity, mainly the United States, Japan and Europe itself.” , "With more than 95 percent of China's photovoltaic industry is a pattern of crystalline silicon manufacturers, in Europe and the United States, thin-film solar technology accounts for almost 70% of the entire industry."

In the final analysis, according to Chen Hao, the fundamental intention of the EU to set up a 'double limit' for China is to create an environment that supports new photovoltaic technologies and phase out old technologies. The reason is also very simple. “Limiting the price of Chinese crystalline silicon products has equalized the path for film products from Europe, America and Japan. In the future, the price in Europe will be about 0.63 Euro/W to 0.67 Euro/Watt. The force will be greatly enhanced (The film won not only because of the price, but mainly because of its low light and the resulting annual power generation advantage. In addition, the film also has advantages in building integration).

All this adds to the aforementioned “opening up a bigger market to China (7 GW/year or more), limited to advanced, innovative photovoltaic products” and predictably, even after 2015, China and Europe “ "Renegotiation" can not make China crystalline silicon photovoltaic further in Europe. On the contrary, due to factors such as price, whether the "7-kilowatt/year share" can guarantee long-term stability is still a matter of uncertainty.

China's Photovoltaic to Settle in Safety

Recognizing the potential crisis, let's look at the status quo and mentality of China's PV today: First, the EU’s “intimate brother” has indeed left a “living path”. Secondly, the “National Six-Article” and other favorable new policies have been introduced one after another, and the industry has launched an unprecedentedly huge market for distributed power generation in the industrial and commercial sectors. In addition, the increasingly “friendly” financial environment and industrial cooperation environment for photovoltaics are spurring the “securitization of power stations” to advance a great step... One “internal and external repair”, and the almost perfect “supply and demand relationship” has gradually established itself. In anticipation of the new round of prosperity just around the corner, perhaps there will be a group of photovoltaic companies that can temporarily “get peace”.

The most incredible is that on the basis of the China-EU dispute on photovoltaic trade, “a win in the first battle”, some Chinese PV companies and trade associations think about how to seize the “winning fruit.” Recently, the rumors spread that “a certain association is devising an export to Europe. The allocation of PV quotas (7 GW) is justified. It is hard to imagine that a deformed order that does not rely on "quality" by "weight" can make China's PV unbeaten.

For this situation, many industry experts, including Chen Jian, have suggested that our government and the photovoltaic industry must be prepared for safety in times of crisis, vigorously support new photovoltaic technologies that meet international trends, and give necessary policy inclinations. Among them, special attention should be paid in time to make up for China’s “short board” in the international mainstream future photovoltaic technology – thin film field.

At the same time, it is worth noting that although the total installed PV capacity in China will reach 35 GW by 2015, China will add 10 GW/year of new installed capacity in the next three years, plus the 7 kilos left by the EU for China’s PV. W/year, China PV will have 17 GW/year new market in the next three years.

But don't forget that China has 30 GW of photovoltaic capacity, and after the foreseeable rapid growth over the next three years, the shrinking domestic PV market will be almost inevitable, and if we are not resolute enough to eliminate backward production capacity, then (after 2015) PV's "tough lessons" may repeat itself again.