Electronic industry investment main line intelligent terminal and security

Currently, smart terminal security applications are mainly smart home, video surveillance, access control, etc. Users are concentrated in small and medium-sized business owners and home users. They can remotely control and store videos by using smart terminals to view real-time home or shop terminal camera images. , capture images, etc., to quickly and easily grasp the dynamics of the area of ​​concern in order to respond in a timely manner. According to analysis by industry insiders, it is possible to cover more industries or users in the future. Especially with the continuous development of mobile Internet technologies, the application prospects of smart terminal security will be very optimistic. Smart terminals and security are the main investment lines for the electronics industry in 2013. What kind of sparks will the smart terminals and security have?

First, smart terminals and security are the main investment in the electronics industry

Industry boom: No peak season, wait for the bottom signal. The overall trend of the industry this year is repeated as it was in 11 years. After experiencing the stock prices at the beginning of the year, due to the economic downturn, sluggish demand, and delay of new products, the peak season effect in the second half of the year will be significant. Terminals except smart phones and tablets will all be shipped. Poorly, the profitability of the upstream sub-sectors such as PCB/CL/PAS/memory dropped more significantly. As Q4 such as win8 and other new products have not yet been fermented, and chip inventory will start at least two quarters after the Q3 reaches a high level, we judge the industry's economic prosperity as soon as Q1 bottomed out, if confirmed, it is expected to set off a wave of inventory lows. Supplementary small cycles, while the continuity of the year is subject to confirmation of demand in the peak season.

Individual stocks are significantly differentiated, and it is particularly important to choose superior industry chains and strong players. The weak electronic cycle in 11-12 was more reflected in the structural market. The cyclical stocks and growth stocks were significantly different. Due to the lack of profit-making effects, the valuations of strong cyclical stocks with poor earnings and high volatility continued to shift downward, and they conformed to the industry. Trends and high-quality growth stocks with core competitiveness continue to outperform the market. If there is no significant rebound in industry demand in 13 years, the elasticity of the cyclical stocks will not be large, and it will be easier to focus on the selected advantageous industrial chain. We believe that Apple Samsung and mainland manufacturers are stimulating the intelligent terminal industry chain, as well as demand and A clear pattern of the security industry will remain the main investment line.

Smart Terminals: Focus on the Rise of China's Supply Chain

The upgrading of smart terminals is still the biggest driving force for the growth of the electronics industry in the next few years, and the continuous transfer of leading supply chains such as Apple and Samsung to the mainland is a major trend. The final point of view next year lies in the acceleration of popularization and diversified competition for smart phones and flat-panels, thin and light notebooks such as Ultrabook, and whether Apple can lead the trend of smart TVs; in the fine-molecule industry, we think of connectors, micro-acoustic sounds, structural components, and antennas. Lithium-ion batteries are the most beneficial and the pattern is clear. The touch screen will also face a new round of technological changes. From the perspective of customers, we prefer the Apple supply chain with better management, technology, and profitability. Apple's new product volume and mainland share will increase next year. Is the driving force.

Followed by Samsung's supply chain, the domestic smart machine supply chain will continue to face the trade-offs between volume increase and price reduction. Those with cost advantages will win, focusing on recommending Lixun precision, Goer acoustics, Jinfu new materials, and Han's laser.

Security: Demand and Technology Upgrade Two-wheel Drive Growth

In the era of high-definition network intelligence, the industry has accelerated the evolution of IPC network storage solutions. The upgrade of smart cities to smart cities, industrial applications, and the launch of the civilian market will ensure that there will be no worries in the industry, and equipment leaders will rely on strong R&D strength and abundant cash to carry out vertical industrial chains. Integration, from back-end to front-end, to solutions and operations, the stronger the stronger. The focus is on vertical integration of leading Hikvision, as well as leading UOB stocks.

Investment strategy: Grasp smart terminals and security companies. Considering that the economy will continue to decline and maintain the “neutral” rating of the industry before the inflection point, the recent sharp correction of the electronics sector has made certain high-growth growth stocks determined to grow next year attractive. We recommend seizing intelligent terminals and high-quality security companies. , The key recommendation is six shares: Lixin, Goer, Haikang, Dahua, Jinfu, Hanzu, and you can also pay attention to Anjie, Desai, Crystal, Changying, and the oversold and strong cyclical stocks that the industry bottomed out next year Rebound opportunities.

Second, smart terminals and security will wipe out how "spark"

(I) The basic forming of the profit model of the industrial chain has gradually matured

Smart terminal security applications as a new industry, the industry chain model is bound to be different from the traditional security industry chain. For intelligent terminal security applications, the industrial chain consists of hardware manufacturers, software providers, operators, platform providers, and so on. They cooperate closely and have complementary advantages, forming a chain of interests sharing and risk sharing. Its industrial chain model can be summarized into the following three categories.

1. The operator-led industrial chain model

In recent years, the rapid development of China's security surveillance market has attracted China Telecom, China Unicom, China Mobile and other communications companies to enter. Zhang Qing, director of industry marketing at Shenzhen Zhongxing Levitech Co., Ltd., said: "As cloud computing technology continues to mature, commercialization penetrates and applications increase, telecommunications and broadband operators are gradually increasing investment in smart cities and other fields. Try to establish a unified cloud computing platform and launch a series of security services. At present, the three major operators have basically launched mobile video surveillance services based on their respective standards. For example, China Mobile’s “G3 Big Eyes” and “Little Door Hitler” advocated in the field of home security, China Unicom’s “Voice Watching Road”, which is mainly promoted in the field of transportation, is mainly targeted at the government, industry, and large corporate customers. . In addition, operators also play a role of bandwidth support. At the same time, some building companies will also choose to cooperate with them. Zhang Zhanlin, product planning manager of Fujian Guanlin Technology Co., Ltd., said: “For Guanlin, we We have fully prepared for the connection with the operator platform. With the advantage of the operator platform, we will deploy smart home terminal equipment on the operator's platform to build a mobile interconnection home management system. This will not only provide operators with a platform for value-added services. At the same time, it also provides a new model for the company's product sales.” Some manufacturers that launch smart home appliances will cooperate with Telecom and China Unicom to achieve the purpose of both selling mobile phones and home security by binding sales methods.

In this industry chain model, operators not only serve as providers of intelligent terminal APP security applications, they also provide APP security services directly to users, and they are also network service providers that provide data transmission and server platforms. At this stage, how operators rely on their own customer resources and network resources to vigorously promote the application of smart terminal APP security protection, is the key operator to maintain the application of intelligent terminal APP security initiative.

2. The industry chain model dominated by security vendors

It is understood that some APP security application software is independently developed by security vendors, such as access control, video surveillance client software, and then upload it to third-party platforms, such as APPstore, Android market, etc., for the majority of users to download. In this development model, security vendors play a leading role. Chen Yi, communications manager of Tyco Security Equipment Asia-Pacific Markets, said: "For Tyco, the leader is the manufacturer. Tyco will put the relevant software developed on the APPstore. It is only used as a download platform." But due to the current domestic Most users are accustomed to using free software, and once the software is launched, competitors will inevitably launch free software, which will affect their market coverage and user usage. Based on this, all are currently providing free supporting smart terminal software, and the only thing the user needs to pay is the traffic charge. However, the profit of the software alone is rarely or even zero. Basically, as Shao Yong, product manager of the Marketing Department of Hangzhou Cubic Automation Engineering Co., Ltd. said, “There is currently no complete profitable industrial chain.”

How to balance this high pay and low returns? Shenzhen City and Bang Tengfei Technology Co., Ltd. R & D center technical director Yu Quanjiang said: "Intelligent terminal software is only ancillary software, to achieve profitability but also through other means, such as APP security application software The ad network ad code is profitable by the ad network's click-through rate, and then divided from the ad network.” Of course, some security vendors that provide parking APP applications will seek additional profit growth points, cooperate with some malls in depth, and help Mall managers effectively control the parking conditions around the mall, such as parking spaces, orientation, etc. There are two main modes of cooperation: one is that mall managers need to pay a certain amount of software costs, and security companies attract merchants of the mall to place advertisements on this type of software, and then return the profits to some mall managers; one is security. Manufacturers provide free software for mall managers to use, and all subsequent profits are owned by security vendors.

In this industry chain model, security vendors are not only developers of security application software, but also smart terminal product producers. In the future, if we want to have a long-term foothold in the smart terminal security market, we also need to segment the market to provide users with personalized products or services.

3. The industry chain model dominated by cloud service platform providers

The platform provider generally refers to a platform that faces all software developers and users and has formed a certain influence in the market. Their main profitability lies in collecting platform management and maintenance costs. In addition to using existing platforms, some security vendors will provide their own service platform and act as a platform provider. Through cooperation with operators and agents, it establishes a relatively fixed profit distribution system with operators. For example, Star Valley's streaming media platform, based on the international standard 3GPP protocol, followed by continuous addition of modules, such as: FLASH support module, intelligent analysis module (special intelligent analysis of the server), on-demand modules, real-time key frame acquisition module (from the stream Intercept pictures for application), smart phone client modules (Android, IOS), etc.

At the same time, more and more security companies are interested in the cloud service market. For example, Hikvision has released front-end products for the civilian market and "Video 7" operating platform and supporting terminal software based on Internet cloud services. With desktop computers or 3G smart terminals, users can easily maintain real-time video contact with businesses or homes.

Behind the development of the industry, operators, security vendors, platform providers and other forces are playing against each other. All parties hope to establish their leading position in the early stage of market development and thus occupy the commanding heights of future development. So how can we get a “one share” in the smart terminal security application market? It is worth thinking and discussing.

(B) to expand channels, the need for entities, the network two-pronged approach

For products or services that are versatile, easy to use, and user-experienced, they must first identify the promotion priorities and then promote them through targeted channels or methods. It is understood that the free supporting software will generally follow the company’s own product promotion; some will promote the development of smart terminals and APP security application software. The former focuses on integrator promotion activities, while the latter uses channel promotion activities. Lord, promotion focuses on smart terminal products. For the industrial users, most of them adopt the project promotion mode; some home users rely on their own brand effect and the original sales network to combine the physical store and the virtual store to develop new promotion channels.

Judging from the promotion effect, at present, some products have been applied in large-scale residential districts in many cities in China, and even successfully spread to Europe, the Middle East and other regions. As a new industry, its development started relatively late. At present, the application is concentrated in the smart home industry, and the market recognition has yet to be improved. Tailor-made personalized products or services for users and accurate marketing and promotion can gradually promote its rapid development and popularization, and will also become the two major security companies, operators, platform providers, and so on. Double-edged sword."