Top Five Problems with FDD License Plates

After long and hard work, FDD licenses finally arrived on schedule on February 27th, 2015. Among the many differences in the screen, PK, subversion, and layout, what you should know best is the answer to the following five questions. That is, the three PKs and the two major patterns:

1, FDD / TDD mainstream dispute

2, the value of FDD fast

3, FDD/TDD network covers those things

4, terminal bonuses and terminal hardships, who's the end of the day?

5. What kind of "three-nation killing" pattern will be brought after FDD?

I. FDD, TDD mainstream debate: Who is the mainstream? What is the significance of the mainstream?

TD-LTE and LTE FDD are 90% identical in technology and products. Only the antenna and radio frequency are different. From a technical point of view, the difference between FDD and TDD technologies is mainly due to the difference in wireless duplex mode: FDD frequency division duplex, TDD time division duplex. The network structure, interface protocols, system parameter configuration, and key key technologies are basically the same.

From the global perspective statistics, there is no doubt that LTE FDD is the mainstream. According to GSA statistics (as of January 7):

1. Commercial networks: 312 single FDD-LTEs and 48 single TD-LTEs, the former being 6.5 times that of the latter

2. LTE terminals: a total of 2218 models, of which 644 models support TDD (visual measurement should be counted as long as TDD is supported), and FDD-LTE is 2.28 times higher than TD-LTE in terms of terminal numbers.

3. As for the scale of users, as of Q3 2014, the global LTE subscribers were 390 million, and FDD subscribers were close to 300 million. At that time, 97 million TD-L subscribers, the former being 3 times the latter.

In terms of scale and share, FDD-LTE is the mainstream in the global market. The current share of TD-LTE in the domestic market is more than 90%. This contrast is caused by policies. After the issuance of FDD licenses, it will obviously be different. Judging from the absolute scale of magnitude, thanks to China Mobile’s tremendous contribution, the TD-LTE industry chain has been able to achieve a virtuous cycle of self, which is one of the reasons why the FDD card can be issued.

So where is the significance of the mainstream? Mainstream means integrating into the global 4G market, achieving global integration of scale aggregation, and sharing of industrial chain resources. The consequent reduction in terminal costs. For operators, international roaming lies in whether they can share resources in the international industry chain. China Telecom in the CDMA era and China Mobile in the TD-SCDMA era all have a personal experience. For mobile phone manufacturers, the mainstream value lies in the fact that one version can achieve maximum coverage of a single product for different markets. For users, mainstreaming means more and better options.

Second, the FDD / TDD rate of competition: fast is a must, but also let the user experience a good fast

Wood is useful, obviously useful! 2G->3G->4G: Text->Images->Video. From a marketing point of view, fast is the key selling point. As for the need for services that are not always available in 4G, that is another matter, which is the same reason as the 8-cell phone.

The average peak throughput of LTE TDD at the same frequency bandwidth is only 1/2 of FDD. The following set of data is the typical experience rate of the current average user. TD-LTE speed downlink: 30-50 Mbps, uplink: 8 Mbps; LTE FDD speed downlink: 70-100 Mbps, and uplink: 20-30 Mbps.

In a high-speed scenario, the channel changes rapidly, and channel estimation and resource scheduling need to be fast. FDD frequency division duplex has an advantage over TDD time division duplex. General TDD mobile stations can only move half or less of the speed of an FDD mobile station. In the high-speed rail scene, the FDD network experience will have an absolute advantage.

The difference in absolute speed between FDD and TDD is obvious enough, but only digital speed is not enough. The user must experience user experience. Operators need to tap user requirements and provide better application services to enjoy the value brought by high speed. Such as video services. Providing high-speed mobile video services will be the killer of FDD, such as high-speed rail video broadcast.

Third, the network covers those things: FDD coverage has advantages, and local tycoons have money to solve with TD-LTE.

From the theoretical analysis point of view, TDD signals are only transmitted in partial time slots under the same power at the same frequency, so the coverage capability of LTE TDD has a natural disadvantage compared to LTE FDD. From the distribution of already allocated spectrum, TD-LTE is generally in the high-frequency area. Compared with FDD-LTE, the same coverage effect must be achieved and base station coverage must be increased. This is behind the question of capital investment. Therefore, to cover this issue, using FDD for wide area coverage is the best choice. As TDD can make full use of asymmetric spectrum resources, in the hot spots where FDD spectrum is depleted, it is possible to realize capacity expansion through TDD and carry asymmetric services.

In fact, from the perspective of users, in fact, do not care about Everest coverage, the key is often to hot spots to provide stable high-speed network services. What I would like to see more is the deep coverage of the three operators in key areas, rather than blindly promoting so-called wide-area coverage without blind corners. This is irrational.

Fourth, 4G terminal competition: China Unicom no longer enjoys the industrial chain dividend, and telecommunication meets the opportunity of bitter sea

As mentioned above, the mainstream means global resource sharing! In the 3G era, telecommunications and mobile know about the pains of non-mainstream, bitter haha's “seeking” industrial chain, and the envy is that Unicom enjoys the dividends of WCDMA, and there is no need to actively promote the terminal. There is a steady stream of deliveries.

From the perspective of competition, the recent changes in the industry are more inclined to save telecommunications in the water:

(1) Qualcomm chip price strategy adjustment

1299 yuan or less C or Qualcomm chips with the same price

The cost sensitivity of mid-to-high end mobile phones is weak

(2) MTK Introduces Full-Mode Chip: Upstream Chip Breakdown

(3) Patent Charges after the Qualcomm Antitrust Investigation

China Mobile's TDL Three-Mode Charges Underestimated

C network supports WCDMA cost difference elimination

(4) FDD license issuance:

International market only supports FDD C products can be successfully introduced, sharing international industrial chain resources

Unicom and Telecom get FDD licenses, Unicom no longer enjoys the dividends of the mainstream terminal industry chain

Resonance of the above four factors, the domestic market, the cost of 5-mode LTE mobile phones in the three networks is basically flat, the cost advantage of TD-LTE three-mode weakened, is expected to further form the three-network scale effect, the price is expected to decline rapidly. Compared with Netcom mobile phones that do not support C, the full Netcom mobile phone that supports C is flat, the competitiveness of mid- and low-end Netcom products is increasing, and Netcom mobile phones will be further popularized.

The author has written several times, before pure VoLTE, the future of the terminal is the entire Netcom! As the operator's influence on the terminal market declines, the market share of the entire Netcom/Open Edition continues to rise. This is for China Telecom, which is committed to smoothing the terminal differences and solving the pain of terminal bottlenecks. It is all good and telecommunication. The darkest moment has quietly passed. At the bottom, how to go is upwards!

V. Operators Three Country Kill: Does FDD Usher in the Change of Pattern?

In fact, there is no point in changing the big format and not changing it. Obviously, an FDD card can hardly reverse the rankings overnight, but it will not be self-contained. Not to mention a good card, although it comes later. For the pattern, sending means variable and sending means hope. The change in the pattern still depends on the hard power competition of the three operators.

1. China Mobile: It is difficult to reproduce the leisurely solo dance. It continues to play in the position of the boss. The share is down.

Look at the dominant position that China Mobile has accumulated now:

User scale share:> 62.5%

As of January 2015, China Mobile had 808 million mobile subscribers, including 4600 million 4G subscribers; China Telecom had 186 million mobile subscribers; China Unicom had 299 million mobile subscribers. China Mobile’s mobile user share is as high as 62.5%.

3G+4G Terminal Market Share: >50.4%

3G+4G terminal market share: China Telecom 22.5%; China Unicom 18.4%; China Mobile 50.4%; open market share of 8.7%.

If the merits and deeds are rewarded, China Mobile today must first be attributed to the excellent management in the 2G era; secondly, it must be attributed to the short-lived domestic 3G era: the late launch of the 3G license in the domestic market, and 4G start-ups. Policy protection period. Because TD-S is actually Adou, because the FDD license will come because of the missed 3G window period, multiple factors superimposed, and China Mobile’s operating capability, the miracle version of China Mobile’s 4G speed broke out: 700,000 completed in one year. Base station, billions of users in one year. Compared to China Unicom, who was intoxicated with 3G's bonus dreams, there are controversial technical problems in the telecommunications TDL CDMA that need to be solved, and the weak industrial chain of TDL C is feared to the bone marrow. It can be said that China Mobile’s 100 million yuan. 4G users are caused by fast-paced in the one-corner show.

Personally, after the licensing, the driving factors of China Mobile's leisurely solo dance are weakening. Telecom and China Unicom have regained vitality from the publicity and the Internet. From the point of view of supervision and third parties, letting the competition continue to be out of balance is not a goal. In the long run, China Mobile’s market share decline is a general trend, but it will still remain the boss’s position. One of the most important weights is that China Mobile has 800 million users in stock. Retaining a user/intranet to upgrade 4G is easier than getting an alien user. This is another reason why China Mobile may still be able to laugh even if it does not have an FDD license.

No longer have to worry about whether the time for license issuance in the past is too late. The new stage is already well established. When the domestic "three-nation killing" enters the real competition, when it comes to internal forces, then how does Telecom and Unicom think about PK and how do they eat from moving tigers?

2. China Telecom VS China Unicom: Disappointing, telecommunication potential is more promising

Terminal level

Previously, Unicom had an advantage over telecommunications in its advantage in the terminal industry chain. As stated in the new era of terminal competition above, with the triple impact of FDD licenses, MTK's launch of full-mode chips and Qualcomm's new fees, China Unicom’s WCDMA compared to telecommunications. The industrial chain's dividends have narrowed, and the terminal advantage has narrowed to almost level.

In terms of 3G 4G terminal market share, in January 2015, China Telecom was 22.5% and China Unicom was 18.4%. China Telecom has surpassed Unicom for the second consecutive month and has a tendency to widen the gap.

Network level

In 3G network, EVDO is in stable and low-frequency wide-area coverage. HSPA is slightly higher in absolute speed but slightly lower in coverage than EVDO.

In terms of 4G networks, from a strategic point of view, China Unicom is actually erroneously estimating the speed of 4G development. It is imperative to reverse the changes in its 2015 network investment deployment and shift its resources from 3G to 4G, which means that Unicom actually lost out in 2014. Part of the FDD/TDD network construction window period. The telecom 4G network has made strength earlier than China Unicom and has already possessed certain advantages.

In terms of international export bandwidth, China Telecom accounts for 60%, China Unicom 30%, and China Mobile only 10%.

3. China Telecom, China Unicom and VS Mobile: Only on the eve of the day, the three-dimensional operation is the “most Internet” is the way to win?

The biggest advantage is quick:

FDD is faster than TDD, broadband advantage is still evident, and international export bandwidth.

To maximize the advantages of "fast" rates, see the "FDD/TDD Rate Controversy" mentioned above.

The biggest disadvantage lies in the face:

China Mobile’s advantage of first-mover network coverage formed in some regions and 800 million in-stock users.

In fact, domestic operators have entered the era of competition, and there are few secrets in strategy and strategy. The competition is now mechanism innovation, implementation at the grass-roots level and integration of resources.

(1) Play a three-dimensional network advantage experience

The experience of 4G era is king. The overall advantage of end-to-end is the real advantage. Unicom and telecommunications must make full use of the advantages of wired broadband and LTE hybrid networking to accelerate the construction and deployment of LTE networks in key regions, through 4G and 3G, and mobile broadband. Wired broadband collaboration can form a network advantage over China Mobile.

It is the responsibility of the operator to be the most professional, intelligent, intimate, and convenient conduit provider.

(2) Focus assault, key experience guarantee

Aggregate resources in the advantageous customer areas such as the government-industry industry market, and implement deep network coverage experience guarantees in key areas.

(3) Innovation leads, gets rid of homogeneous entanglement, jumps out of Mi Cang, facing the tide of Internet

What is most anticipated is that each of the three operators has formed a unique competitive advantage label, such as the CDMA network security label, and through differentiated service model innovations, operational model innovations, and Internet cooperation innovations, differentiated services and experiences compete for customers. Digging from the 0 to 1 Blue Ocean, less simple and crude price war!

No longer lamenting that in the midst of the consumer Internet's tide, do not miss out on the industrial Internet gold mines. We should actively carry out innovations in mechanism innovation and transition to innovation-intensive enterprises. Seeking new growth points in the IoT field of the Internet of Things. Extensive scale development is always at an end. It is now at the stage of value-oriented orientation.