Analysis of Q1 Situation of Strategic Emerging Industries in 2015

In the first quarter of 2015, the overall development of China's strategic emerging industries showed a steady upward trend, and key areas such as LED lighting, new energy vehicles and robotics maintained rapid growth. Under the “One Belt, One Road” strategy, it is expected that the second quarter will be good. With the support of the development environment and policies, strategic emerging industries will still maintain a relatively rapid development momentum.

In the first quarter of 2015, the policy environment of China’s strategic emerging industries continued to improve, the development environment was further optimized, and the overall development of the industry showed a good trend of steady growth; internationalization levels and levels of advantageous industries such as rail transit, nuclear power equipment, information and communications, and construction machinery. Constantly improved; new progress has been made in the research and development of new materials, high-end equipment, and new-generation information technologies. However, problems such as lack of basic guarantee capabilities for strategic emerging industries, high financing for financing, and lack of high-end talent in some industries still exist, which seriously restrict the healthy development of the industry. Under the influence of a favorable policy environment, it is expected that China's strategic emerging industries will maintain a relatively stable and rapid growth in the second quarter, innovation results will be more pronounced, development potential in some areas will be released, and the pace of “going out” will be further accelerated.

In the first quarter of 2015, the overall development of China’s strategic emerging industries showed a steady upward trend, and key areas such as LED lighting, new energy vehicles, and robots maintained rapid growth and played a major role in pulling. At the same time, the strategy of “One Belt and One Road” was also adopted. Under the impetus, the pace of high-end equipment going out has been significantly accelerated. It is expected that strategic emerging industries will maintain a relatively rapid development momentum under the support of a sound development environment and policies in the second quarter.

First, the basic situation

(I) The industrial policy environment is more perfect

In January, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to set up a national emerging industry venture capital investment guidance fund, focusing on supporting innovative companies in their infancy, and, to a certain extent, alleviating the financing difficulties of industrial development. At the same time, at the two sessions this year, Premier Li Keqiang proposed the “Internet + Action Plan” for the first time, and proposed to support the development of strategic emerging industries such as mobile Internet, integrated circuits, high-end equipment manufacturing, and new energy vehicles, and strive to promote mobile Internet and cloud computing. , Big Data, Internet of Things, etc. combined with modern manufacturing to promote the healthy development of e-commerce, industrial Internet, and Internet finance. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the State Council Standing Committee decided to establish a national emerging industry venture capital investment guidance fund, focusing on supporting innovative companies that are in the initial stage of “deterrence,” in order to promote the integration of technology and market, innovation and industry, and incubate and nurture future-oriented new developments. Industry; National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guideline for the Issuance of Special Bonds for Strategic Emerging Industries” and proposed “Energy saving and environmental protection, new generation of information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials, new energy vehicles, LED intelligent lighting and other fields. "Eligible enterprises issued special bond financing for strategic emerging industries; various localities also actively formulated policies to promote the development of strategic emerging industries, such as Hebei Province issued the "Guidelines for Hebei Banking Industry Support and Service Entity Economy Development in 2015". It is proposed to increase credit support for strategic emerging industries, which all provide a more complete policy environment for the development of strategic emerging industries.

(II) The overall growth of the industry showed a steady upward trend

Compared with the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in the same period near the Rong-Jil line, China's strategic emerging industries as a whole continued to maintain a good momentum of development. Taking Anhui Province as an example, the province’s strategic emerging industries were stable and progressing in January-February. The cumulative output value reached 114.01 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9%, which is 13 percentage points higher than that of industries above designated size. However, from a national point of view, the development of China's strategic emerging industries was affected by the adverse effects of the overall decline in the national economy and the beneficial effects of national policies and capital-driven development. Since December 2014, China’s strategic emerging industries, EPMI, began to decline rapidly. The EPMI indicator in December decreased by 3.9 percentage points from November. In the first quarter of this year, the overall development of China's strategic emerging industries showed a steady upward trend. According to the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy and China Mining Consulting, from January to March this year, China's strategic emerging industry purchasing managers index (EPMI) was 51.8%, 52.5% and 60%, respectively, compared with January and February respectively. The decrease was 3.9 and 5.4 percentage points, and it rose sharply in March, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 percentage points, hitting a record high. New energy vehicles, robotics, aerospace and spacecraft manufacturing, and electronic and communications equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth. It has become an important force for pulling back the rise of China's strategic emerging industries. According to statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the added value of China's new energy vehicles and robots has achieved a rapid growth of over 50%, far exceeding the growth rate of China's industrial added value of 6.4%. Aviation and spacecraft manufacturing and electronic and communication equipment manufacturing have also been realized. More than 20% and nearly 15% growth.

(III) The level and level of internationalization of advantageous industries have been continuously improved

High-end equipment such as rail transit and nuclear power is an advantageous industry in China's strategic emerging industries. Since 2014, the pace of China's high-speed rail “going out” has been accelerating. In January this year, the State Council’s executive meeting deployed to speed up railway equipment, nuclear power and other Chinese equipment “going” Going out to promote international capacity cooperation and enhance the level of cooperation provides a more favorable policy environment for advantageous industries to “go global”. In the field of rail transit equipment, on January 26 this year, CNR (United States), a subsidiary of China CNR, had signed a contract with the Massachusetts Bay Area Transportation Authority (MBTA) to export the Boston Red Orange Line subway project to China. The output of the high-end equipment industry to the United States for the first time. So far, China’s rail transit has achieved full coverage of the six continents of the world. It has transformed the market from less-developed regions to developed regions and products from low-end to high-end products. The export of Brazilian subways and electric vehicles to the 2014 World Cup is a glorious example. Mark, the international brand influence of China's rail transit equipment is increasing. China’s nuclear power equipment “goes out” has also made positive progress. On February 6th, China and Albania signed a nuclear power agreement. The “Hualong 1” third-generation nuclear power technology with Chinese independent intellectual property rights will be exported to Argentina, marking China’s nuclear power “going out”. "We have taken substantial steps.

(IV) New progress in technological breakthroughs in some areas

In the fields of high-end equipment, new materials, and new-generation information technology, China has continuously made new technological breakthroughs, and some areas have broken the monopoly of foreign companies on the domestic market. In the field of new materials, International Composites, Chongqing University, and Chongqing University of Technology jointly developed two new materials, high-pressure cylinder glass fiber yarn and high-performance long glass fiber, which fill the domestic gap and break the domestic market. The monopoly position of foreign companies such as OCV and PPG. In the field of high-end equipment, the China National Iron and Steel Equipment Group independently developed a TBM with a diameter of 8.03 meters (TBM) in the Zhengzhou off the assembly line, marking that China's TBM technology has become one of the world's first phalanx and will greatly improve The construction automation and modernization level of China's mountain tunnels are of great significance to the development of China's infrastructure construction and equipment manufacturing industry; the permanent magnet synchronous traction system developed by CSR Zhuzhou has successfully completed its first orbital operation and successfully passed the review of the China National Railway Corporation. China has become one of the few countries in the world to master high-speed rail permanent magnet traction system technology. In the field of new-generation information technology, China Electronic Information Industry Group Co., Ltd. has successfully developed a network switching chip "Zhiqiao" SDN smart high-density 10G switching chip and "FengTeng" FT-1500A series CPU processor, in which "Zhiqiao" chip is China Electronics independently researches and develops the fourth-generation switching chip. The key technology of the "FeiTeng" FT-1500A series CPU processor is leading domestically and can realize the replacement of Intel's high-end "Xeon" server chip.

Second, the main issues

(I) There is no fundamental change in the lack of basic support capabilities

At present, the guarantee capacity of some key materials and core components in China is insufficient. The core basic materials and components are still important factors constraining strategic emerging industries. In the first quarter, although China has made new technological breakthroughs in the field of new materials, compared with the strategic needs of developed countries and our country, there is still a large gap between domestic new material industries, and there is no fundamental change in the dependence on import of a large number of key materials, such as 8 generations. The 8.5-generation LCD panel production line has been successfully put into production, but the self-sufficient rate of key materials such as polarizers, ultra-thin glass substrates, and liquid crystal materials does not exceed 10%, and high-strength extra-thick steel plates and integrated circuit core materials for marine exploration and production platforms are mainly used. Monopoly for foreign industry giants. In the field of core components, taking industrial robots as an example, domestic leading technologies and products for independent innovation and core parts are lacking in China. More than 70% of domestic markets are ABB Switzerland, Japan FANUC, Japan Yaskawa Electric, Germany KUKA robots, etc. Monopoly by industry giants.

(II) Financing difficulties are still not solved effectively

Since the beginning of this year, the financing environment of China's strategic emerging industries has improved. However, the financing difficulties of strategic emerging industries have not been effectively resolved: the strategic emerging industries have different development models than traditional industries, and financial institutions have developed models and profits for strategic emerging industries. The pattern is not well understood, and financial products adapted to strategic emerging industries have not yet been developed. At the same time, many small and medium-sized enterprises in strategic emerging industries are at the stage of entrepreneurial development. Under the existing bank-led financial structure, SME loans lack collateral. Moreover, intangible assets such as intellectual property are difficult to guarantee, and it is difficult for enterprises in the start-up and growth stages to obtain bank support. Even if some financial institutions are willing to provide loans for enterprises, the level of interest or hidden costs is also high, as some banks provide for enterprises. The loan interest rate is generally 5% higher than the benchmark interest rate, and even 40% higher. Some banks require the enterprise to refinance after lending, arbitrage the company's silver ticket, require the guarantee company to provide guarantees, etc., and increase the cost of corporate loans in disguise. Affected the healthy development of high-growth companies and industries.

(III) Lack of high-end talent is more prominent in some industries

Strategic emerging industries are typical technology-intensive industries, and they are highly sensitive to knowledge. High-quality talents have become the core factors that determine the healthy and sustainable development of strategic emerging industries. At present, China’s strategic emerging industries continue to develop rapidly, and the lack of high-quality talent is particularly prominent in some industries. Taking nuclear power as an example, nuclear power equipment has become China's “going out” fist industry and products, and nuclear power companies have expanded the scale of employment. With the approval of successive nuclear power plant new unit projects, coupled with nuclear power as a key industry with independent intellectual property rights in China. However, there are still relatively few talents in China’s advanced nuclear energy technology research and development, and there is still a certain gap compared with the nuclear power countries. At the same time, in the years of stagnant nuclear power, there are serious brain drains in nuclear power companies, Tsinghua University, Shanghai Jiaotong University, and Xi’an Jiaotong University. Harbin Engineering University (formerly known as Harbin Institute of Shipbuilding) and other universities have reduced their enrollment in nuclear industry. With the increase in nuclear power projects, the shortage of nuclear power personnel has become increasingly apparent.

Third and second quarter trend judgment

(I) Industry will maintain rapid and steady growth

Since 2014, the PMI reflecting the economic conditions of China's manufacturing industry and the EPMI of China's strategic emerging industries have exhibited similar trends, but the EPMI has averaged 4.24 percentage points higher than the PMI for the same period, especially in March this year. Only 50.1%, with a slight advantage above the Rong and Ju line, and EPMI reached a record high of 60%, 9.9 percentage points higher than the PMI, reflecting the strategic emerging industries showing a good development trend. At the same time, the "Belt and Road" national strategy, "Made in China 2025" and other documents, the establishment of a national emerging industry venture capital guiding fund, and the introduction of specific industrial policies have provided a better environment for the development of strategic emerging industries. Policy support, especially “Made in China 2025,” puts emphasis on the development of new generation information technology, high-end CNC machine tools and robots, aerospace equipment, marine engineering equipment and high-tech ships, advanced rail transit equipment, energy-saving and new energy vehicles, and electric equipment. The 10 major areas of new materials, biomedicine, high-performance medical devices, and agricultural machinery and equipment are basically strategic emerging industries. In the second quarter, under the favorable influence and stimulation of the aforementioned policies, strategic emerging industries will maintain a relatively stable and rapid growth.

(B) The effect of innovation will be more pronounced

In March this year, the State Council issued the "Guidance Opinions on Developing Public Space for the Promotion of Volkswagen Innovation and Entrepreneurship," and it has deployed public entrepreneurship and innovation, and has formulated plans in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Anhui, Henan, Hubei and Quanzhou. Supportive policies to promote innovation and development, such as Quanzhou as the only pilot city in China's manufacturing, on March 28th, officially released Quanzhou Manufacturing 2025, proposing to provide service guarantee for innovation, and continuously improving the innovation and entrepreneurship environment as a strategic emerging industry Development provided the impetus. In Beijing and other places, a number of innovative service organizations have emerged, such as Innovation Workshop, Angels Exchange, 3W Coffee and 36-inch, etc. Tianjin has emerged a number of innovation bases, and innovative results continue to emerge, in new materials, high-end equipment, a new generation Innovations in areas such as information technology and biomedicine are particularly prominent. For example, China has begun to enter the forefront of the world in areas such as supercomputers, information retrieval, e-commerce, integrated circuit design, genetic engineering, fourth-generation nuclear power, and some new materials. Technology followers shift to the role of leader. In the second quarter, with the continuous improvement of the innovation environment, corporate innovation activities will become more active, and the innovation effect of strategic emerging industries will become more significant. Innovation and development will continue to be an important force leading the industry.

(III) The development potential in some areas will be further released

Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has entered a new normal, its growth rate has been reduced, and its growth momentum has been accelerated. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, the lowest since 2010, but the added value of new and emerging industries such as high-tech industries, new energy vehicles, robots, etc. continued to increase, and new industries accelerated. Development is becoming a new force that drives economic growth. In order to speed up the transformation of China's economic development mode and build a powerful country, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council, deployed to speed up the "Made in China 2025", proposed to "make the Internet + Action Plan", "Internet +" represents a new economy Form, deeply integrates the innovation achievements of the Internet in various fields of economy and society, improves the innovation and productivity of the real economy, and fully reflects the deep integration of information technology and manufacturing technology, and will promote the new generation of information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, and biotechnology. Developments in the fields of medicine, smart appliances, smart lighting appliances, etc. In addition, with the gradual introduction of policies to promote environmental protection and management of haze, energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy and other industries will usher in a better policy environment. In summary, in the second quarter, under the stimulation of the aforementioned favorable policies, the potential for the development of industries such as high-end equipment, new generation information technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, and new energy will be further released.

(4) The pace of "going out" will be further accelerated

China's rail transit represented by CSR, CNR, and China Railways and information and communication products represented by Huawei, ZTE, and Haier have already achieved good results. The implementation of the national “One Road and One Road” strategy provides a rare opportunity for China’s advantageous industries to “go global”. The establishment and operation of the BRICS Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Silk Road Fund are promoting the entire While infrastructure construction, resource development, industry, and financial cooperation in Asia will provide important financial tools for the international development of such advantageous industries as rail transit, nuclear power equipment, information and communications, and construction machinery, the pace of “going out” will increase. The sooner the level and level of internationalization will be further enhanced, it is expected to achieve a transformation from a single product to an output to the overall output chain of products, technologies and services.