Five major expectations for the development of LED lighting industry in 2017
On December 30, 2016, the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering Research and Development and Industry Alliance Industry Research Institute (CSA Research) released the "2016 China Semiconductor Lighting Industry Development White Paper", the white paper made an expected analysis of the industry development in 2017, CSA Research pointed out that 2017 In the new year, new technologies and economic changes such as intelligence, Internet+, and sharing economy will accelerate the development of semiconductor lighting technology and application areas. At the same time, with the “13th Five-Year†semiconductor lighting industry planning, “Green Photo IV†and other national plans and projects have been introduced and implemented, the semiconductor lighting industry will usher in new development opportunities and challenges in 2017.
First, the basic and cutting-edge technologies continue to break through, and the lighting quality is further improved.
CSA Research pointed out that the silicon-based yellow LED light efficiency is expected to exceed 140lm/W, the external quantum efficiency of deep-UV LED will also increase to about 15%, and the output power at room temperature will exceed 30mW, which will speed up the field of ultraviolet LED in sterilization and purification. With the gradual solution of problems such as materials, reliability and price, the CSP price-performance advantage is gradually highlighted, and it is expected to achieve large-scale production.
In addition, in order to improve the light quality, it is necessary to further strengthen the application of basic theory research such as color rendering, non-visual effect and visual comfort; in light biosafety and light medicine, combined with physiology, medicine, psychology, sociology, etc., research light Research on the influence mechanism of physiology and pathology, and gradually establish a quantitative evaluation system supported by big data.
Second, the application segmentation trend is obvious, niche market or new growth point
CSA Research said that in 2016, small-pitch display, automotive LED, mobile LED flashlight and other market segments have received attention; innovative applications such as bio-agriculture lighting, photo-medical, communications, security, sterilization and disinfection will become new growth points after the replacement phase and Long-term growth momentum. Driven by urbanization, Internet of Things, and smart city construction, small-pitch LEDs continue to exert strength in the field of large-screen splicing, accelerating penetration, and competing with DLP and LCD products. It is expected that the domestic small-pitch LED market will continue to grow rapidly in 2017. The growth rate is over 40%.
The overall LED color of vehicles is on the rise. It is expected that the market size will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2017. UVLED's global market size in 2017 will reach 270 million US dollars, which is expected to exceed 1/3 of the entire UV light source market, thus forming a situation of resistance to ultraviolet mercury vapor lamps.
Third, industrial resources are further concentrated, and cross-border integration has become mainstream
CSA Research pointed out that large enterprises rely on the capital market to further pool their superior resources through integrated mergers and acquisitions, and continue to grow bigger and stronger. SMEs need to dig deep into the market segment and do a good job in order to find a way. In addition, in addition to the integration of next-generation information technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data, the trend of LED and intelligent manufacturing, LED and cultural industries, manufacturing and service integration is further evident. Cross-border, integration and development will be the mainstream of the industry in 2017.
Fourth, the overall growth rate of the market is slowing down, and risk management needs to be strengthened.
In 2017, the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad is still complex and changeable. CSA Research believes that the moderate recovery of the US, Japan and Europe, as well as the expected depreciation of the renminbi, will benefit exports, which will slow down the decline in LED lighting products exports since 2016. In 2017, the domestic economy is still bottoming out. In addition to the strict regulation of real estate in the country since October 2016, the brake effect will continue to be conveyed to the building materials industry for several months. It is expected that the growth rate of the LED lighting market will be released in the first half of 2017. Slow, while the slowdown in downstream demand will also lead to a decline in the growth rate of the middle and upper reaches.
At the same time, the price of a new round of PPI started to rise in the third quarter of 2016, and the cost of labor and raw materials of the company may rise. In addition, as the penetration rate of the general lighting market increases, niche markets such as agricultural lighting, small-pitch displays, automotive LEDs, UV LEDs, and IR LEDs will continue to be launched in 2017. Therefore, in 2017, companies need to pay attention to prevent risks, do a good job in strategy and cost management, and avoid price competition in the Red Sea.
5. The “13th Five-Year Plan†has been issued one after another, and the central and local support efforts are not reduced.
The “13th Five-Year†semiconductor lighting industry plan will be released in early 2017, and the introduction of “Planning†will clearly define the industry's next development focus and development mode. In addition, the launch of the project “Promoting the transformation of the semiconductor lighting market and promoting the new energy-saving and environmentally friendly new light source (Green Photo IV)†(GEF-SSLED) will play an active role in promoting the transformation, application demonstration and quality assurance of the semiconductor lighting market. Jiangxi Nanchang and other places will successively launch specific measures and programs to further increase policy support to promote the rapid accumulation and development of local industries, and to form distinctive optical valleys, photoelectric towns, and smart towns.
In addition, with the promotion and implementation of the policy of “Promoting the “One Belt and One Road†to build a special plan for scientific and technological innovation cooperationâ€, Chinese enterprises will continue to push forward.
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