Will the launch of AR/VR mobile phones make second-tier mobiles fight Jedi counterattacks?
Some companies intentionally or unintentionally stand on the cusp of the technological revolution. Even without doing anything, they can drift forward with the wave and move forward for 10 years or even longer. However, for a company, catching up with a wave cannot guarantee its longevity, especially if it misses the transition period of the next wave of revolution. This situation occurred in the long history of China in 2000, and it also frequently occurred during the decades of scientific and technological explosions. Jiangshan generation of talented people came out, leading the way for hundreds of years, hidden heroes are the struggle and helplessness.
If Huawei, OPPO and Xiaomi are the lucky winners in the mobile Internet era, ZTE, Lenovo, and Nokia are over-the-top product stars. They keep their residual market share from time to time to spotlight the hot points of technology trends, but often the forms are more substantial than they are. A show, it is difficult to form a self-competitive advantage.
At the 2017 CES conference, ZTE Hawkeye (Eagle Eyes) attempted to attract attention with its eye-tracking technology, while the Asus ZenFone AR made appearances with mobile phones that enabled Tango technology and support Daydream technology. They all seem to be equipped with cool cutting-edge technologies. Can it really be a chance for Jedi to fight back? Is the so-called AR/VR mobile phone a nameless commercial marketing?
A mutual experiment between a third party and a mobile phone provider
Judging from the market share of smartphones in the past two years, the top ten mobile phone brands have already become a foregone conclusion. In addition to Huawei, the other “China Kudilian†has been difficult to compete with OPPO, VIVO, Xiaomi and Meizu. It is not on the same level.
In addition, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are more than 700 domestic mobile phone manufacturers registered in 2013, but less than 20 mobile phone brands are currently available for sale in the market. In 2015 alone, 136 mobile phone brands died and 2016- In 2017, brand mobile phones will also be reshuffled in the Chinese market, including many well-known brands. Therefore, under such circumstances, in addition to expanding overseas markets, second-tier brands such as ZTE, Lenovo and Asustek need to seek new ways to deal with the cruel market elimination system.
However, it is not wise to choose to use Google's AR/VR platform system. It is a wise attempt to occupy the unknown market ahead of time and hope that it will be a good vision for the present or future. And AR/VR technology is not yet mature, and the combination with the performance of smart phones is barely beyond the starting line, so the bottom line for Google and mobile phone brand manufacturers, is more like an application experiment that both parties did not break.
It is known that Tango is an AR platform that uses Google authentication equipment to create an AR user experience, and Daydream is a built-in VR platform for Android that supports VR applications, both of which consistently uphold Google's openness features, which means that even if it is incompatible It is also possible to cooperate with Google to develop a new system that is compatible with its own brand. Moreover, Google has been working hard to develop an AR/VR platform that is compatible with most mobile phone brands. To a certain extent, as long as there are common interests, Google can sign an agreement with any company to carry a platform system. This determines that whether Asus or Lenovo cannot rely on Google Tango and Daydream systems to form a unique competitive advantage. .
Withdrawing 10,000 steps, mobile phone manufacturers integrating AR/VR technology and mobile phones in advance to take advantage of the new technology trend have taken an innate advantage in this market, and this differentiated feature may become an important support point for its development. What can't be ignored is that the core technology is in the hands of a third party such as Google. This is tantamount to being captured by outsiders and facing the risk of revoking the right to use at any time, unless it is possible to have independent research and development in the future. .
These are all subsequent words. The key point is that Huawei has already announced at this year's CES conference that the US version of Mate 9 has added support for Google Daydream and Amazon's smart voice assistant Alexa. In addition, Google also said that it is working with Huawei. The in-depth cooperation related to motion tracking, context awareness, and depth perception on the Tango Project means that Huawei's mobile phones equipped with Google's AR/VR platform will soon be available. This is undoubtedly the biggest bad news for Asustek. At the same time, it also shows that the technical results of compatible third parties are, after all, the icing on the cake, and the intrinsic performance is the basis for solving problems.
Do we really need AR/VR handsets?
The Keynesian school of economics often talks about the need to determine supply, and to form a market by finding customer needs and producing corresponding products to satisfy it. With smartphone performance and the market becoming increasingly saturated, will AR/VR phones really become the demand of ordinary consumers? If there is no corresponding demand, will this compatibility be reduced to Google’s increase in AR/VR? Technical test field?
First of all, we should understand what kind of differentiated performance the so-called AR/VR mobile phone has. From the aspect of AR technology applied to smart phones, Asus and Lenovo, which are all equipped with Google Tango technology, are taken as examples. ZenFone AR application scenarios include indoor navigation, 3D maps, and environmental recognition. At the same time, there will be 35+ Tango augmented reality applications on the mobile phone, including the virtual home improvement app and other applications and games. In terms of virtual home furnishings, scanning a room with a mobile phone allows any piece of furniture in this app to jump into the screen of the mobile phone to see if it is suitable for interior decoration. Other basic applications are the appearance of virtual things. For example, a simple operation can see a non-existent cat walk indoors.
The first handset Lenovo Phab2 Pro, which also supports Tango technology, first appeared in the US in June this year. It is similar to the augmented reality experience of the Asus ZenFone AR. In spite of this performance, the two handsets are inevitably caught in a controversy over content, and may not eventually become a phenomenon-level product. This is mainly limited by two factors: First, consumers spend money for AR/VR experience. The consciousness has not yet been formed; the second is that the consumer's demand for the purchase of smart phones still stays at the level of appearance greater than the performance.
GFK's 2016 China VR Retail Market Report provides a good illustration of the current state of VR technology. As can be seen from the figure, most people do not have a deep understanding of AR/VR, and even users who know these products are not willing to pay for it because they know that the existing hardware and content are not enough to meet The imagination of AR/VR technology. Most people who are willing to consume VR hardware devices can only be users in between. They will have a willingness to buy out of curiosity and freshness, but they are limited to cheap VR helmets. This is from China's VR hardware retail market. The average price can be seen below 200 yuan. However, the price of handsets that can support Google's VR/AR technology is basically around RMB 4,000. Together with additional VR headsets and AR equipment, it is basically a high-end machine in China, and it is currently the AR/VR handset. With limited application scenarios, few people are tempted by the immature yet unpopular experience.
On the other hand, China Statistical Information Service Center "China Mobile Consumer Demand Research Report" pointed out that mobile users to consider the needs of mobile phones, appearance and brand are most valued, and even the appearance of the highest proportion of the consumer's primary needs. On the contrary, the mobile phone equipped with Google AR/VR platform gives people a first impression on the appearance of being bulky and bloated, especially compared with the brands such as OPPO and VIVO which are the main fashion trends, which has reduced the consumers to some extent. Purchase desire. In terms of brand, Asus and Lenovo have no advantage at all. On the contrary, Huawei's influence in the world is more likely to expand the scope of augmented reality and virtual reality.
From these two aspects, it can be concluded that in order for VR/AR mobile phones to achieve breakthrough growth, it is necessary to rely on the wide recognition of hardware devices of VR/AR technology and the further enrichment of content, or else only from a single aspect of smart phones. Starting up can not change the actual needs of consumers.
AR or VR? This is a problem
AR can superimpose computer-generated images onto the real world, and VR allows users to immerse themselves in the scenes presented in the content, regardless of the environment in which they live. It is only from this basic difference that they can understand whether it is a technology threshold or an application. In the future, AR is more challenging than VR. However, even the so-called first year of VR did not bring more surprises and progress. With the series of negative news such as the collapse of VR companies and layoffs, many people even suspect that this new industry has entered the capital winter period ahead of schedule. In fact, compared to AR technology, the VR industry in 2016 has been accompanied by this concept of fiery attracted a large number of Internet companies influx, many of them have strong technology and strong financial support, but why not so good in such a favorable situation To maintain the same trend, but gradually into a semi-dead situation?
It is very important that users lack stickiness. According to the survey, the official sales volume of the PlayStation 4 has reached 50 million, and the number of PCs supporting VR Ready is 15 million, but in fact these PC users satisfy the VR hardware requirements. Only 6% purchased VR helmets. In addition, there are approximately 15 million user computers configured to meet VR requirements on the game distribution platform Steam, but only 3% of them purchase VR helmets. In short, adaption restrictions are not a major factor hindering the popularity of VR hardware. The performance of VR helmets is still in urgent need of breakthrough. Of course, there is the problem of attractive content and richness. Many people who are engaged in the development of VR applications have stated that profits are too low and the cost is too high. Long-term losses expose developers to severe pressures for survival. How can we develop more applications? What about the scene?
Based on the overall situation in the first year of VR, it may be too early to talk about VR outbreaks. After all, this new technology process involves two major difficulties: technical difficulties and consumer demand. At the same time, it is precisely these foreseeable obstacles that make companies that focus on AR technology very few. Even Silicon Valley technology giants Microsoft and Google have not been able to develop R&D hardware and software programs this year, and Google is even better because of Magic Leap. The spurious turmoil was pushed to the cusp. The startup, once known for its $4.5 billion valuation, is now satirized as a “PPT company†because of delays in the development of finished products. Despite its executives’ denial and clarification, it’s no surprise that the product is unveiled. Google and Magic Leap also have to accept multiple questions.
It is in this situation that many consumers are still very skeptical about Lenovo or Asus AR mobile phones. They generally believe that even VR devices with slightly lower technical difficulty have not achieved a major breakthrough, and there is no reason to buy one. With regard to AR equipment or mobile phones whose performance has not yet been approved, it is difficult to be optimistic about this handset from the perspective of other phones equipped with Google Tango or Daydream.
According to foreign media reports, earlier support of Daydream Google's two mobile phones Pixel and Pixel XL, 15 minutes after running the VR program has overheated, and the screen also pop-up related security warning prompts, the user can only interrupt the VR program Allow the device to cool and use the phone again. Lenovo Phab2 Pro was negatively challenged by technology media Techradar at the beginning of its debut. It pointed out that “If a third-party application cannot provide a valuable or enjoyable user experience, the Tango phone will fail.†After experiencing the impact of smart phone product accidents, consumers' concerns about security will greatly increase. The hidden dangers brought by the operation of Tango or Daydream programs will largely hinder the further development of mobile VR/AR.
In short, this is essentially an attempt at both parties. Google needs mobile phone manufacturers to experiment with the operation of Tango or Daydream platforms on the mobile terminal. Mobile phone manufacturers need to use AR/VR systems to increase the highlights. Not as good as they think, because the glories of reality have not yet shined into this unknown area.
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