New energy vehicles, carrying the dream of China's "curve overtaking," have recently drawn significant attention. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other relevant departments have not officially commented, industry insiders have confirmed that the new energy vehicle integration policy originally scheduled for 2018 will be delayed by one year. While the 8% new energy point requirement for 2018 has been abolished, the targets for 2019 and 2020 remain at 10% and 12%, respectively.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, stated in an interview on September 7 that many car companies are not yet prepared. He emphasized that extending the policy for a year would give automakers more time to adapt. The extended period could help companies transition smoothly and avoid market disruptions.
However, some experts argue that delaying the policy might harm China’s competitive edge. Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute at Shanghai Jiaotong University, believes that the double-point policy could provide a three-year golden period for new energy vehicles. If postponed, the first-mover advantage may be lost, making it harder to regain momentum. Similarly, Su Hui from the China Automobile Dealers Association urged the policy to be implemented as planned, arguing that early implementation would encourage faster adaptation and innovation.
The "double-point" system refers to the Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points, issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. This policy is stricter than previous incentives. Companies failing to meet the new energy vehicle points requirements risk having their vehicle listings suspended and production or import quotas reduced.
For example, a company producing over 50,000 vehicles in China must meet specific new energy vehicle point ratios each year. Pure electric vehicles can earn between 2 to 5 points depending on driving range, while hybrid vehicles with over 50 km range earn 2 points. A major player like Volkswagen, which sells 3 million cars in China, would need 240,000 new energy points in 2018—equivalent to selling at least 48,000 pure electric vehicles.
If companies fail to meet these standards, they can buy surplus points from others. However, failure to comply could result in penalties such as suspension of vehicle listings and production cuts. Cui Dongshu noted that although China has a strong support system for new energy vehicles, the current policy lacks sustainability. With falling oil prices, demand for new energy vehicles has weakened, and automakers are not fully committed to the transformation.
To meet the new energy vehicle targets, many foreign automakers are forming partnerships with Chinese brands. For instance, Volkswagen and Ford are collaborating with Jianghuai and Zhongtai, while Renault-Nissan partners with Dongfeng. These alliances are driven by the pressure of the double-point policy, which is seen as crucial for promoting sustainable development post-subsidy.
Despite the delay, Cui believes the pace of new energy transformation will not slow down. He argues that joint ventures today are more about social responsibility than profit-driven technology transfer. The delay gives foreign companies more time to collaborate with Chinese partners, but it also creates opportunities for independent brands.
BYD, Zotye, BAIC, SAIC, Geely, Jianghuai, and Chery are better positioned to meet the new energy point targets. Their surplus points could become a valuable asset in the market, helping them reclaim their position in the industry. Cui believes that if the policy is implemented on schedule, independent brands could gain a larger market share in the short term.
However, he also acknowledges that most independent brands still face challenges. Their technological capabilities are limited, and they rely heavily on government support. Additionally, low oil prices and weak industrial chains make it difficult to compete with foreign brands. Despite this, Cui sees the delay as a positive opportunity for independent brands to strengthen their position.
Looking ahead, he emphasizes the importance of technical research, industrial collaboration, and cross-border integration. Developing new energy and intelligent connected vehicles should be the focus, aiming to build a new industrial ecosystem that drives transformation and growth. The long-term direction of China’s new energy vehicle development remains unchanged, and the industry must continue to innovate and adapt.
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