Apple's OLED phone has finally arrived, and even rumors about an OLED TV from Apple have already led to experimental prototypes. However, these developments do not indicate that OLED TVs will quickly replace LCD products. Industry experts predict that the domestic market for OLED TVs will exceed 10,000 units by 2020—though this is still equivalent to the LCD TV industry’s stage in 2006.
One of the main challenges facing OLED technology is the limited upstream production capacity, which will take time to resolve. While OLED displays offer clear advantages, they are not universally loved due to the current low manufacturing volume compared to demand. This gap between supply and demand remains a major hurdle.
From a semiconductor display industry perspective, South Korean companies like LG Display (LGD) and Samsung have heavily invested in OLED projects. For example, LGD’s E6, P10, and Guangzhou plants, along with Samsung’s sixth-generation line, represent massive investments. Meanwhile, Chinese mainland manufacturers stopped investing in liquid crystal projects after 2016 and shifted focus to OLEDs for smaller sizes. However, large-size LCD projects are still being expanded in China. Taiwanese manufacturers are mainly focusing on expanding their large-size LCD output, while Japanese panel makers have struggled to scale up OLED production, even lagging behind Taiwan in some aspects.
The total investment in new OLED production lines exceeds RMB 350 billion. Samsung, LG, and BOE are leading the charge, but mass production hasn't been fully achieved yet. Samsung currently dominates the global OLED market, holding over 90% of it. The OLED industry is now characterized by a dominant player (Samsung), diversified construction efforts, and insufficient production capacity. In short, the market is at a point where demand is high, but supply is limited, setting the stage for a potential market explosion.
However, the OLED TV sector differs from the small and medium-sized OLED industry. Most global OLED projects are based on sixth-generation lines, and only LG has significant large-size OLED production capabilities. LG has several large-scale lines, including E3, E4-1, and E4-2, with E4-2 expected to reach full production by late 2024 or early 2025. LG also plans to build a 10.5-generation OLED line in its P10 plant using advanced printing technology.
Despite these plans, LG's overall production capacity remains small compared to the global TV market. Even if all its projects come online by 2020, the output would account for just 2% of global TV sales. While the domestic market for OLED TVs is growing, the supply is still dominated by LG, similar to how Samsung controlled the small-size OLED market before 2016.
Expanding OLED TV production faces significant bottlenecks. LG must balance investments in both small and large-size OLED panels, while also addressing technical challenges related to flexibility and printing technology. Additionally, there's uncertainty about whether printing technology will eventually replace traditional methods, which could make large-scale OLED investments risky.
Meanwhile, the LCD industry continues to dominate, with major projects like BOE's 10.5-generation line and others being built across China. These projects are expected to significantly increase LCD production capacity, potentially capturing a fifth of the market. Given the maturity, scalability, and cost-effectiveness of LCD technology, it will likely remain the mainstream until at least 2025.
In conclusion, while OLED shows great promise, especially in mobile devices, the path to large-scale OLED TV adoption is still long and uncertain. For now, LCD remains the safer and more viable option for the industry. The future may see coexistence between OLED and LCD, but for the next decade, LCD will continue to hold the dominant position.
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