Reviewing the global new energy vehicle market in 2016
Looking back at the 2016 new energy vehicle industry is relatively expensive, so according to a main line to discuss what happened in 2016, and future pre-research. If we take a closer look at the different models of new energy vehicle development, we can analyze it in depth from the perspective of the model.
1. The impact of low oil prices in the United States on electric vehicles
In the case of low oil prices in the United States, the economic considerations of pure electric vehicles are not dominant. The consumers of subdivided electric vehicles are not sensitive to price. They begin to choose products with good space, acceleration and cruising range experience. Consumers are willing to The mileage of the cruising range, the pure electric vehicle with low cruising range, the price range is blocked (the original luxury brand premium is not accepted by consumers).
So we can see that in the United States, after the launch of the cheap Chevrolet Bolt EV of more than 200 miles, Ford also announced that it will launch a 300-mile pure electric SUV in 2020, making pure electric vehicles continue from 100 miles - "200 miles + --" 300 miles + development, in the case of natural acceptance of consumers, must provide consumers with higher mileage and better acceleration characteristics.
This relationship can be seen from the picture below: Nissan Leaf (LEAF) experienced a cycle of ascending and descending, facing the challenge of mileage and price, began to return to the mediocre sales level (12,000 vehicles), Tesla Model S is able to stabilize and continue to grow, mainly with different series to distinguish, different mileage and configuration, and other autopilot kits and other factors supporting this product. The situation of the BMW i3 is also relatively stable.
2. Dispersion characteristics of Europe
The 100-mile battery life commuter still accounts for a large share (80%) of the 91,000 pure electricity sales. In Europe, in fact, the plug-in vehicles in the first 11 months of this year are also at the sales level of 90,000 units. The next step is the differentiation trend. Therefore, it can be seen that European car companies should improve on the first generation of pure electric vehicles. The normalization of pure electric products is promoted by high voltage (800V system) and large mileage. If we continue to maintain sales of 10,000 units, the benefits of the entire project will not come up.
3. The situation in China:
1) Production and sales: From January to November 2016, a total of 420,800 new energy vehicles were produced. In 2016, China's new energy vehicle production is expected to account for 40% of the global total.
In fact, we can look forward to more car companies around the 150KM line, the cost optimization of micro-car, 250km this line, as the standard configuration of urban commuter cars, 300 ~ 350KM this as a 200-mile line, also There will be a business impact.
2) Confirmation of long-term goals: The “13th Five-Year National Strategic Emerging Industry Development Plan†re-emphasizes the need to further realize the scale application of new energy vehicles. By 2020, the production and sales volume of new energy will reach 2 million units in the same year, and the cumulative production and sales volume will reach 5 million units. This is the goal, and the specific implementation still needs to rise according to the year and year.
3) New energy subsidy targets and cycles: The whole 2016 is the beginning of fraudulent compensation, which also makes the industry more concerned about subsidies, and financial subsidies (directly for companies to make money) bring short-term profit-seeking things, over-excessive There will be reliance, subsidies will fall too fast, and the cost will not be synchronized, which may lead to the product not being accepted by the market, and the sudden decline in sales will hit the enthusiasm. In the post-subsidy era, non-financial capital subsidies such as the “Interim Measures for the Average Management of Enterprise Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicles to Meet the Standardsâ€, how much is the value of the points, how to trade is the focus of the next step to mobilize work enthusiasm.
4) New energy vehicle safety and technology scale: "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry" wants to expand the battery industry, and determine the safety boundary through the special evaluation of safety risk of electric buses and "Safety Technical Conditions for Pure Electric Buses". "Notice on Further Improving Safety Supervision and Application of New Energy Vehicles", establish a three-level new energy vehicle safety operation monitoring system including national, local and enterprise, and hierarchically classify safety responsibilities.
In 2016, there was a lot of news for pure electric vehicles, but the actual pace of advancement was slower than we thought.
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