It is expected that the first round of LED subsidies will be announced at the end of June

On May 7, the Ministry of Science and Technology released the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the development of semiconductor lighting technology (Draft for Soliciting Opinions). It is proposed that by 2015, the scale of LED lighting industry will reach 500 billion yuan, and LED lighting products will account for 30% of general lighting. Focus on cultivating 20-30 leading enterprises and establishing 20 state-level industrial bases and 50 pilot demonstration cities of "ten cities, ten thousand cities and towns".

At the same time, the plan also pointed out that 80% of 85% of chips are nationalized in the 12th and 5th, and the light efficiency is improved, and the cost is reduced to 1/5

Taking the current LED chips accounting for nearly 60% of the cost of lamps and lanterns, the reduction in optical chip prices can drive down the cost of lamps and lanterns by nearly 50%. With the improvement of packaging technology and the popularization of high-efficiency and low-cost drive circuits, the cost of lamps and lanterns can be reduced to the current 30-40. %, so that the price of LED bulbs to replace the 40W incandescent lamp fell to 20-30 yuan, the street lamp drop slightly smaller, but it can also be down to the mainstream price of a thousand dollars, the benefit of accelerated penetration of LED. In addition, the development of national standards such as lamps, driving technology, and testing equipment, as well as the popularization of the EMC model, will also play a catalytic role in opening the market for LED lighting during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

The first round of LED subsidy tendering will produce results in the near future, this year may not be less than 5 times

The bidding on March 20 in Beijing was the first round of the 8 billion subsidy we mentioned in the previous report, but the amount was not very large, about 2 million indoor downlights, spotlights, tens of thousands of street lights, the amount of Only about 200 million yuan. As a result, companies use it as a tool for branding, giving very low quotations and not making significant contributions to the company's performance. Among the 110 enterprises participating in bidding, the price of the same type of product may differ by more than ten times, of which the price of the enterprises with traditional lighting is lower, and the results of tendering will be announced in batches in the near future. The time point should be before the end of June, and this year bidding may not In 5 times.

According to the analysis, the first round of bidding subsidies is of greater symbolic significance, and the higher tendering requirements (requirements for compulsory certification and energy conservation certification are also required) so as to provide targeted subsidies to Shilai's enterprises. The key subsidy and support will be more obvious and beneficial to companies with core competitiveness and independent brands. Among the A-share related companies, Qinshang, Sunshine, and NVC (Ruifeng has an LED packaging line with NVC) are expected to win the bid.

Policy stimulus, LED boom will further improve

In spite of the large upstream production capacity, many expansion plans have been postponed or even cancelled after the cold wave since the second half of last year. From the policy level, leading companies will focus on support and will further increase industry concentration. On the external market, Japan has completely stopped nuclear power this year and there is a large amount of LED demand. Taiwan plans to replace all LED lights within three years, helping to digest peripheral production capacity.

Starting from the end of the first quarter of this year, the LED industry has seen a rebound in its business climate, and a large number of backlight and lighting needs have emerged, making order visibility back to two months or so. The operating rate of the ring has been greatly improved. The leading company is even close to being fully loaded. The analysis believes that with the The issuance of five special plans and financial subsidies continue to proceed, and the LED boom will further increase.