Local “adjustment structure” lacks power to push up power shortage

On May 16th, the deputy secretary of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee, Mei Kebao, headed for Shanxi to “find coal” and became the first team to enter Shanxi before the summer peak.

At the symposium in Hunan and Jinzhou, Mei Kebao frankly stated: "Because of the surge in electricity demand, insufficient hydropower output, and a large number of coal-fired power plant outages, Hunan's electricity supply continues to be tight, affecting industrial and agricultural production and people. The basic livelihood of the people hopes that Shanxi can give greater support to Hunan in terms of coal supply."

Behind the "electricity demand soar" is the rapid development of Hunan's industrial industry.

According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, the electricity consumption of the entire society in March 2011 was close to the electricity consumption during peak hours in summer peaks in July and August of last year. The "electricity shortage" is changing from seasonal to normal.

A rather ironic trend is that when the national policy cannot effectively promote the adjustment of the local government's industrial structure, the “electricity shortage” that is spreading at present may be playing a decisive role.

This reduction of data released by the Hunan Provincial Bureau of Statistics shows that the GDP of Hunan Province in the first quarter of this year was 364.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, and the growth rate was 13% over the previous seven quarters. Among them, the value-added of scale industry achieved 149.05 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, and the value-added of heavy industry was 103.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%.

“In the industrial structure of Hunan Province, the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials in Hunan Province is high; the proportion of modern service industry output value to the output value of the third industry is not high, and the degree of socialization, marketization and industrialization are still relatively Many areas in Hunan are still extensively growing, and economic growth relies too much on investment, and resources and environment are greatly constrained.” An analysis was made by the deputy inspector of the Hunan Academy of Social Sciences.

In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of Hunan Province, iron and steel, petrochemical, etc. are still important projects for its development.

Not only Hunan. In 2010, under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction, some places suspended the approval of high-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects. A large number of projects were transferred to the start of the first half of this year, resulting in a substantial increase in electricity consumption. In some places, the stock of high-energy-consuming industries has not decreased but has increased.

Industrial growth is positively correlated with electricity demand. The “electricity shortage” is a typical case in Hunan, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi.

According to data provided by Li Ting, a researcher at the China Center for Circulation Productivity Promotion, from January to April this year, the growth rate of the industrial added value of the above three regions was higher than that of the entire country, and the output growth of high energy-consuming products (nonferrous, cement, and crude steel) was mostly high. At the national level.

Recently, the National Audit Office released results of the audit investigation of energy-saving and emission reduction in 20 provinces. The audit results showed that the problem of illegal construction of high energy consumption and high pollution projects in some localities was not completely eliminated. Some thermal power plants, steel and cement companies have not been approved by the relevant state agencies, and they have violated the national industrial policy requirements. They have violated regulations for the construction of “two highs” projects, which have brought pressure on local energy conservation and emission reduction work.

In addition, the elimination of backward production capacity is still not thorough. Some enterprises have not carried out the elimination of backward production capacity in accordance with the national policy of eliminating backward production capacity.

This shows that the policy of energy conservation and emission reduction has been continuously alienated during implementation.

The transformation paradox under the impulse of local pursuit of high-speed economic development, power demand will inevitably increase.

An economic development model has been universally recognized in the local and power industries: the central and western regions use 1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, the industrial output value can reach 10 billion yuan, and the fiscal revenue is 1 billion yuan; while under the same electricity consumption, the eastern region is economically developed. The region can create industrial output value of 12 billion to 15 billion yuan.

Driven by this mode of economic development, local governments even made a fuss about "electricity prices."

In the electricity price inspection conducted by the SERC in 2010, it was found that some provinces (regions) introduced their own preferential tariff policies to encourage the blind development of high-energy-consuming enterprises; in some regions, the implementation of the differential tariff list was slow.

However, the slogans and methods for the transformation of economic development in some localities are even different.

The reporter learned that a national poverty-stricken county in the west was selected as a pilot for transitional development to explore the resource-based economic transition. There are more than 150 planned development projects in the near future, and the investment scale is nearly 60 billion yuan. The investment projects involve industries, urban and rural infrastructure, and urban construction. Among them, the total investment in industrial projects is more than 300 billion yuan, nearly half of all investment.

Among these investment projects, resource processing is the mainstay, but investment in steelmaking and power generation projects is as high as 25 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 10 times the local GDP in 2010.

According to the reporter’s understanding, there are not a few places where high energy-consuming projects are being carried out in the banner of the transformation pilot.